PETRONAS DAN HARGA MINYAK by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad

by Dr. Mahathir Mohamad at July 6, 2008 in his blog...

Saya berasa amat sedih kerana ada orang menyalahkan Petronas kerana kenaikan harga minyak sehingga sanggup mengkasari beberapa pekerja Petronas yang memakai baju Petronas dan menolak-nolak mereka dalam keretapi komuter.

Kenaikan harga minyak disebabkan oleh peniaga minyak antarabangsa yang menjual beli minyak sesama mereka seperti dahulu mereka menjual beli matawang negara tertentu termasuk negara kita. Terdapat maklumat yang mengatakan mereka menyewa tanker besar untuk simpan minyak menunggu kenaikan harga.

Kenaikan harga yang amat tinggi mempunyai kesan negatif kepada negara seperti China dan Jepun yang bersaing dengan Amerika Syarikat dan Eropah.

Di masa yang sama pendapatan dolar yang bertimbun-timbun oleh Negara pengeluar minyak terpaksa disimpan di Amerika. Wang ini digunakan oleh Amerika untuk menampung ekonomi mereka yang menghadapi defisit dalam belanjawan negara dan defisit dalam dagangan Amerika.

Kebanyakan daripada syarikat pengeluar minyak dimiliki oleh rakyat Amerika dan mereka mendapat keuntungan yang amat besar daripada penjualan peratusan minyak yang dikeluarkan oleh mereka bagi negara-negara pengeluar yang tidak mampu mengeluar sendiri. Di Malaysia juga terdapat syarikat-syarikat asing yang untung besar daripada bahagian mereka dalam perjanjian "production sharing".

Hanya di Malaysia Petronas memiliki bahagian yang lebih besar kerana kita tidak serah semua kegiatan pengeluaran kepada syarikat asing semata-mata. Industri petro-kimia juga adalah milik Petronas.

Kerana Petronas terlibat secara menyeluruh dalam industri minyak ia diundang untuk mengambil bahagian dalam pengeluaran, penapisan dan lain-lain kegiatan industri minyak di 34 buah Negara.

Keuntungan daripada operasi luar Negara kian meningkat dan pendapatan dibawa balik dan di miliki sepenuhnya oleh Kerajaan Malaysia.

Pendapatan Petronas lebih tinggi daripada jumlah cukai korporat dan cukai pendapatan Kerajaan. Tanpa sumbangan besar daripada Petronas Kerajaan tidak akan dapat memberi subsidi minyak sama sekali.

Keputusan untuk menggunakan sumbangan wang daripada Petronas untuk subsidi adalah hak Kerajaan dan bukan hak Petronas. Bagaimana dan banyak mana subsidi yang hendak diberi adalah tanggungjawab dan hak Kerajaan. Mengurang atau tidak jumlah subsidi juga ditentukan oleh Kerajaan.

Walaupun Kerajaan mengganti rugi semua syarikat minyak di Malaysia kerana menetap harga minyak yang rendah daripada kos minyak, ini tidak dilakukan berkenaan harga gas.

Harga gas sekarang jauh lebih rendah daripada harga sebenar. Kerajaan memaksa syarikat penjual gas menanggung kos ini. Oleh itu hanya Petronas sahaja yang sanggup mengadakan stesen gas untuk kereta dan juga membekal gas kepada stesen jana elektrik. Tiap satu meter padu gas yang dibekal oleh Petronas untuk kereta atau stesen janakuasa, Petronas menanggung kerugian.

Oleh kerana permintaan untuk gas melebihi daripada pengeluaran di Semenanjung, Petronas terpaksa beli gas dengan harga pasaran dunia. Dengan ini kerugian menjadi lebih besar.

Jika lebih banyak gas digunakan, walaupun Petronas dibenar menaikkan harga gas, tetapi Petronas tetap akan rugi. Sudah tentu syarikat minyak yang lain tidak akan import dan jual gas di Malaysia. Sebagai syarikat negara Petronas sanggup tanggung kerugian. Syarikat dagang tidak akan berasa bertanggung jawab terhadap negara ini.

Penggunaan minyak dalam negara meningkat sepanjang masa. Tiap tahun hampir setengah juta kenderaan bermotor didaftar. Bangunan-bangunan pencakar langit dan bangunan rumah bertambah dengan pesat. Demikian juga industri yang mewujudkan peluang kerja kepada rakyat. Semuanya mengguna kuasa elektrik yang dijana dengan gas sebagai bahan api.

Hari ini kita keluarkan lebih kurang 650,000 tong sehari, dan kita guna 400,000 tong dalam negara. Baki 250,000 tong kita jual di luar negara dengan harga pasaran iaitu 140 Dolar Amerika se-tong bersamaan dengan RM420 se-tong.

Dengan kenaikan harga minyak, subsidi untuk minyak tentu naik. Tetapi kerana kita dapat tambahan pendapatan daripada kenaikan harga jualan minyak yang kita eksport maka subsidi boleh ditambah.

Tetapi jika kegunaan dalam negeri meningkat, dan ia tetap meningkat, maka eksport tentulah merosot sepanjang masa. Bertambahnya penggunaan dalam negeri bermakna lebih banyak jumlah subsidi yang diperlukan. Lebih banyak yang digunakan dalam negeri, maka jumlah eksport tentulah merosot dan pendapatan daripada eksport juga akan merosot.

Jika sampainya satu masa jumlah kegunaan dalam negeri menjadi sama dengan jumlah pengeluaran dalam negeri, maka tidak akan ada lagi pendapatan daripada eksport. Di waktu itu tidak ada wang untuk memberi subsidi lagi.

Petronas saya percaya jika tidak diganggu oleh pihak tertentu untuk menguasai industri yang begitu untung ini, akan cuba mengeluarkan minyak di luar negara. Minyak ini tidak akan beri pulangan yang sebesar minyak dalam negeri. Bayaran hasil oleh Petronas kepada Kerajaan akan merosot. Jika tidak ada sesuatu usaha dibuat sekarang, jika hanya politik yang diberi perhatian oleh Kerajaan Dato Seri Abdullah Badawi, ekonomi negara ini boleh hancur dan rakyat akan kembali jadi rakyat negara ketiga.

Sementara itu kita harus fikir apakah akan jadi kepada kita jika tidak ada Petronas dengan kecekapan anggotanya dalam industri yang strategik ini.

Walaupun saya dinamakan penasihat kepada Petronas, setelah saya tidak jadi Perdana Menteri saya tidak lagi memberi apa-apa nasihat.

Apa yang saya tulis ini ialah berkenaan dengan strategi Petronas yang dibentuk dahulu, yang mengambilkira masa depan industri minyak negara dan kesan terhadap ekonomi negara. Memang kenaikan harga minyak tidak diduga, tetapi ramalan kita tidak akan sebegini teruk. Strategi ini perlu dikaji semula memandangkan kenaikan harga yang luar biasa.

Strategi ini perlu mengambilkira bukan sahaja keadaan dalam negara dan keperluan mencari populariti tetapi juga keadaan di luar Negara di mana sekali lagi konsep pasaran bebas (free market) memberi peluang kepada penyangak gergasi untuk memperkayakan diri mereka di atas penderitaan yang miskin di dunia.

OIL, OIL and OIL

Tun Dr. Mahathir, former Prime Minister of Malaysia has been my Idol since I was a very young boy. He has inspired me to face anything that comes in my life. The way he handled problems and obstacles was always unique but proven to be effective. I love this man.. Sir, I am happy to have you as our leader. Please continue to fight for our right. Malaysian, please listen to him. Reflect all his words of wisdom.

Oil Price (By Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad)
The price of crude oil has increased by 400 percent in the last three years. It follows that the price of products must increase, sooner or later. In other countries petrol prices had already increased. In the United Kingdom one litre of petrol sells for more than one pound sterling or RM7. In the United States it is about RM5.

That the price in neighbouring countries has gone up is shown by the rush to fill up by Thai and to a lesser extent Singapore vehicles.

The Government has now announced an increase in petrol price by 78 sen to RM2.70 per litre, an increase of more than 40 per cent.

I may be mistaken but there seems to be less vehicles on the road today. But obviously that is not all that will happen. All other consumer goods, services and luxury goods would increase in price.The cost of living must go up. Put another way there will be inflation and the standard of living will go down.

Obviously our increase in petrol price is far less than in the United Kingdom or the United States. But our per capita income is about one-third of theirs. In purchasing power terms our increase is more than in the UK or the US.The increase hurts but the pain is greater not just because of the increase percentage-wise is higher than in developed countries but because of the manner the increase is made.

A few days ago the Government decided to ban sale of petrol to foreign cars. It flipped. Now foreign cars can buy again. Flopped.

Knowing that in a few days it was going to raise the price and foreigners would be allowed to buy, why cannot the Government just wait instead of banning and unbanning.But be that as it may what could the Government have done to lessen the burden on the people that results from the increase in petrol price.

In the first place the Government should not have floated the Ringgit. A floating rate creates uncertainties and we cannot gain anything from the strengthened Ringgit. Certainly the people have not experienced any increase in their purchasing power because of the appreciation in the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Ringgit.Actually the Ringgit has increased by about 80 sen (from RM3.80 to RM3.08 to 1 US Dollar) per US Dollar, i.e. by more than 20 per cent. Had the Government retained the fixed rate system and increased the value of the Ringgit, say 10 per cent at a time, the cost of imports, in Ringgit terms can be monitored and reduced by 10 per cent. At 20 per cent appreciation the cost of imports should decrease by 20 per cent. But we know the prices of imported goods or services have not decreased at all. This means we are paying 20 per cent higher for our imports including the raw material and components for our industries.

Since oil prices are fixed in US Dollar, the increase in US Dollar prices of oil should also be mitigated by 20 per cent in Malaysian Ringgit.But the Government wants to please the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and decided to float the Ringgit. As a result the strengthening of the Ringgit merely increased our cost of exports without giving our people the benefit of lower cost of imports.This is not wisdom after the event. I had actually told a Government Minister not to float the Ringgit three years ago. But of course I am not an expert, certainly I know little about the international financial regimes.I believe the people expect the increase of petrol price. But what they are angry about is the quantum and the suddenness.

The Prime Minister was hinting at August but suddenly it came two months earlier, just after the ban on sale of petrol to foreigners.If the increase had been more gradual, the people would not feel it so much. But of course this means that the Government would have to subsidise, though to a decreasing extent.Can the Government subsidise? I am the “adviser” to Petronas but I know very little about it beyond what is published in its accounts. What I do know may not be very accurate but should be sufficient for me to draw certain conclusions.Roughly Malaysia produces 650,000 barrels of crude per day. We consume 400,000 barrels leaving 250,000 barrels to be exported.Three years ago the selling price of crude was about USD30 per barrel.

Today it is USD130 – an increase of USD100. There is hardly any increase in the production cost so that the extra USD100 can be considered as pure profit.Our 250,000 barrels of export should earn us 250,000 x 100 x 365 x 3 = RM27,375,000,000 (twenty seven billion Ringgit).But Petronas made a profit of well over RM70 billion, all of which belong to the Government.By all accounts the Government is flushed with money.But besides petrol the prices of palm oil, rubber and tin have also increased by about 400 per cent. Plantation companies and banks now earn as much as RM3 billion in profits each. Taxes paid by them must have also increased greatly.I feel sure that maintaining the subsidy and gradually decreasing it would not hurt the Government finances.In the medium term ways and means must be found to reduce wasteful consumption and increase income.

We may not be able to fix the minimum wage at a high level but certainly we can improve the minimum wage.Actually our wages are high compared to some of our neighbours. The investors who come here are attracted not by cheap labour but by other factors, among which is the attitude of the Government towards the business community and the investors in particular.

From what I hear business friendliness is wanting in the present Government – so much so that even Malaysians are investing in other countries. There are rumblings about political affiliations influencing decisions.

Generally Government politicians are said to be arrogant.Malaysia is short of manpower. The labour intensive industries are not benefiting Malaysians. Foreign workers are remitting huge sums of money home.The industrial policy must change so that high tech is promoted in order to give Malaysians higher wages to cope with rising costs of living.The world is facing economic turmoil due to the depreciation of the US Dollar, the sub-prime loan crisis, rising oil and raw material prices, food shortages and the continued activities of the greedy hedge funds. The possibility of a US recession is real.

In a way the US is already in recession. The world economy will be dragged down by it.Malaysia will be affected by all these problems. I wonder whether the Government is prepared for this.We cannot avoid all the negative effects but there must be ways to mitigate against them and to lessen the burden that must be borne by all Malaysians. I am sure the Government will not just pass all these problems to the people as the review of oil prices every month seem to suggest.

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